The Alabama Senate election is finally upon us. In advance of Tuesday’s election, our final Alabama poll shows Democrat Doug Jones beating Republican Roy Moore in both high turnout and low turnout models. While Moore has laid low, holding rallies with friendly conservative media figures like Steve Bannon and giving interviews to pro-Trump PAC’s, Jones has been touring Alabama with Democrat Senators like Cory Booker and NBA legend Charles Barkley.
— AL.com (@aldotcom) December 11, 2017
Absentee ballot voting in Alabama’s most populated counties is up significantly and we are expecting a robust turnout for this election, which we believe favors Doug Jones.
Requests for absentee ballots are way up in Alabama. Madison County, the third most populated, has sent out 2,900 & received 2,016 so far. That's much higher than the 650 they sent during the runoff & even surpasses the 1,900 they received during 2014 governor's race.
— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) December 5, 2017
Earlier in the week, President Trump emphatically endorsed Roy Moore in hopes of raising his sinking poll numbers. In a rally in Pensacola on Friday, he urged his supporters to show up and vote for the Republican nominee. However, the RNC’s support for Moore has been more reserved and was limited to a single donation of $50K. It’s still an open question whether the Senate would expel Roy Moore if he wins — especially with the recent resignations of Al Franken and John Conyers — but Moore must focus on beating his Democratic opponent first.
— Chicago Tribune (@chicagotribune) December 9, 2017
CB Polling conducted an online Google Consumer Survey of Alabama residents from December 8th to December 11th. Among those surveyed, 685 declared their intention to vote , 50.4% of respondents indicated they would vote for Doug Jones (D) while 47.8% indicated they would consider voting for Roy Moore (R) in our high-turnout model. In our low turnout model, Doug Jones maintains a razor thin lead over Roy Moore, 49.2% – 48.9%. The margin of error is 3.7%.
Our poll shows Colonel Busby, the independent write-in candidate, could have an impact on the outcome despite less than 2% of respondents planning to vote for him. Supporters of both candidates seem to have consolidated their support, with some moderate Republican voters continuing to shy away from Roy Moore due to the allegations published in the Washington Post. Special elections have traditionally been perceived as difficult to predict, and we expect turnout to be crucial to deciding the outcome.
Link to the accompanying press release here